Economic Perspectives was founded in 1996 by Dr Peter Warburton, to offer diverse insights into global macroeconomic developments and financial market dynamics.
Between 2006 and 2021, working with a small team of fellow professionals, EP acquired a reputation for incisive analysis and bold calls. Since April 2021, EP has reverted to Peter’s personal consultancy company.
Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-economic consultancy, serving clients in the asset management sector. Following extensive research and empirical analysis over 25 years, we believe that global credit market developments hold the key to understanding the outlook for global growth and financial markets. Our clients benefit from the breadth and depth of this understanding and its application to investment issues.
Our research approach recognises insights from across the spectrum of economic thought, guided by the topical concerns of global investors. We hold counter-consensus views on the outlook for inflation, preferring a narrative that embraces the challenges of political economy and inter-generational tensions as well as macro-monetary forces.
The plurality of Economic Perspectives recognises that diagnosis is strengthened by examining a problem from multiple angles. Using diverse strands of argument and analysis, we aim to stress-test mainstream macro-economic views and to provide valuable and thought-provoking insights for clients. As an example, we developed a diagram to represent the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the risk-reward trade-off for investors. This was presented at an investment conference to explain how investors targeting an unchanged real rate of return have been ushered into progressively higher-risk assets.
Our research agenda is shaped by conversations with our clients and information providers, leading to timely re-examinations of the issues of greatest concern to financial market practitioners. Our eclectic approach allows us to draw insights from divergent schools of economic thought (such as Austrian, Monetarist and New Keynesian). The litmus test of a good idea is its empirical validity and relevance to contemporary issues and debates. The critical insights of Claudio Borio and his BIS colleagues regarding the superiority of gross financial flows over net financial flows as explanations of external imbalances is an illustration. We present our work in plain English, illustrated with charts and tables.
Using slide presentations, occasional publications, and blogs, we seek to develop rich narratives that enhance understanding of the underlying forces at work in the global economy. Our main purpose is to challenge orthodox thinking, where this is merited, and to develop a better and broader understanding of the issues of greatest concern to investment managers. We do not provide a running commentary on high frequency data, much of which is unreliable and subsequently revised. Rather, our research is intended to address fundamental issues and broader themes.
We keep close tabs on the global economy using two observational publications, Global Inflation Heat Maps and GDP Heat Maps. The monthly Global Inflation Heat Maps are a monthly visual representation of the evolving inflationary pressures across various sectors in the world’s largest economies. The quarterly GDP Heat Maps summarises the national accounts data for 53 countries.