We keep close tabs on the global economy using two observational publications, Global Inflation Heat Maps and GDP Heat Maps. The monthly Global Inflation Heat Maps are a monthly visual representation of the evolving inflationary pressures across various sectors in the world’s largest economies. The quarterly GDP Heat Maps summarises the national accounts data for 53 countries.
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GDP Heat maps
March 2025
Inflation improvement in Q3 was largely technical and oil price-related
Global nominal growth tumbled in the third quarter of 2024, to 6.0 per cent, led by weakness in US, Germany, Korea, and the oil producers, offset by modestly stronger growth in China, Japan, UK, France and Italy. Real growth held up, meaning that the deflator bore the full burden of nominal decline, reaching an annual pace of 3.4 per cent.
GLOBAL INFLATION HEAT MAPS
August/September 2025
Warming from the core
The basing out of developed country inflation now looks to be complete, with tariff-related impulses set to drive annual inflation towards 4 per cent over the coming year. Emerging market inflation is still benefitting from the dramatic declines in Argentina, Egypt and Turkey, but could soon fall victim to the same tariff-related forces.