We keep close tabs on the global economy using two observational publications, Global Inflation Heat Maps and GDP Heat Maps. The monthly Global Inflation Heat Maps are a monthly visual representation of the evolving inflationary pressures across various sectors in the world’s largest economies. The quarterly GDP Heat Maps summarises the national accounts data for 53 countries.
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GDP Heat maps
Tightening credit conditions risk a whipsaw effect for real GDP
Annual growth of the deflator for global GDP rose to 6.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, led by North America, Europe and EMEA. While inflation rates should peak over the next few months, there are structural forces that obstruct a return to the previous range.
Meanwhile, consumers face a perfect storm of adverse developments
GLOBAL INFLATION HEAT MAPS
No grain without pain
For inflation-embattled administrations, the peak can’t come soon enough. It isn’t here yet, as both annual rates and 6-month annualised rates tear higher. Runaway food prices are the pressing concern, as food inflation has reached double figures in US, Germany and Sweden. China’s resistance to higher inflation appears to be faltering.