We keep close tabs on the global economy using two observational publications, Global Inflation Heat Maps and GDP Heat Maps. The monthly Global Inflation Heat Maps are a monthly visual representation of the evolving inflationary pressures across various sectors in the world’s largest economies. The quarterly GDP Heat Maps summarises the national accounts data for 53 countries.
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GDP Heat maps
Extent of central bank misjudgement is becoming clear
Annual growth of the deflator for global GDP rose to 5.0 per cent in Q3, its strongest reading for more than 20 years. There has been a striking increase in inflation in Europe and EMEA while only Japan still reports deflation. Tightness in product, service, labour and property markets is reinforcing the inflationary trend.
GLOBAL INFLATION HEAT MAPS
Unremitting inflationary pressures
March data reflects the abrupt impact of the bombardment of Ukraine on European energy prices and the deepening supply chain problems arising from Chinese lockdowns. Food and clothing inflation is rife and housing costs continue to creep higher in most countries. Inflation forecasts have ratcheted upwards for 2022 and 2023.