We keep close tabs on the global economy using two observational publications, Global Inflation Heat Maps and GDP Heat Maps. The monthly Global Inflation Heat Maps are a monthly visual representation of the evolving inflationary pressures across various sectors in the world’s largest economies. The quarterly GDP Heat Maps summarises the national accounts data for 53 countries.
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GDP Heat maps
Extent of central bank misjudgement is becoming clear
Annual growth of the deflator for global GDP rose to 5.0 per cent in Q3, its strongest reading for more than 20 years. There has been a striking increase in inflation in Europe and EMEA while only Japan still reports deflation. Tightness in product, service, labour and property markets is reinforcing the inflationary trend.
GLOBAL INFLATION HEAT MAPS
Nearly a full house!
There was a definite broadening of inflationary pressures in November, as hitherto subdued categories, including food, made positive contributions. Headline inflation is below 2 per cent in only 3 advanced economies: Japan, Switzerland and Hong Kong. As Chinese base effects unwind, emerging country inflation is also gaining momentum.