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Category: Blog

UK FISCAL UNSUSTAINABILITY

28 July 2023 peterwarburton

Earlier this month, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its latest appraisal of the UK’s fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS).…

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BANKS GO ROGUE!

5 July 2023 peterwarburton

Like a pillion passenger leaning in the opposite direction to the rider, UK banks’ behaviour has become perverse and dangerous.…

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THE MORTGAGE TIME BOMB EXPLODES!

22 June 2023 peterwarburton

The sky is black with chickens coming home to roost. As the reality of the UK’s inflationary struggle dawns, borrowers…

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UK RECESSION DENIAL

26 April 2023 peterwarburton

2009 witnessed an impressive recovery in the GfK measure of UK consumer confidence, from around -35 to -15, yet the…

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UK ECONOMY: NOT A PRETTY PICTURE

3 April 2023 peterwarburton

The release of the full national accounts for 2022 has confirmed what an extraordinary year it was for the UK…

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THE FED’S PROBLEM: NOT ENOUGH CHAIRS!

13 March 2023 peterwarburton

Last week, US financial markets woke up to the depth of the funding and liquidity crisis that has been rippling…

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UK PUBLIC FINANCES: I WOULDN’T START FROM HERE!

23 February 2023 peterwarburton

Since Covid struck, UK public finances have been on a war footing. The usual controls on public spending were relaxed…

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US: BEWARE QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING

9 February 2023 peterwarburton 1 Comment

The market and media obsession with the Fed’s deliberations on interest rates is obscuring a material threat to US and…

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THE UK CONSUMER RECESSION IS NOW!

24 January 2023 peterwarburton

While the consensus has turned more hopeful that a UK recession can be averted, the evidence points strongly in the…

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US: WIDE OPEN TO WAGE GROWTH

7 December 2022 peterwarburton

Despite the marked acceleration of hourly wages over the past 12 months, the US labour market is as tight as…

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